Tuesday, March 24, 2009

The Immigration Sage of Manhattan Speaks on H-1B Visas

I know my dear friend Sam Udani will be absolutely mortified when he sees today’s blog entry, but too bad.  He simply has to come to terms with his insight and what it means to those of us with our ear to the ground, listening for the distant thundering hooves of immigration changes to come. 


 


Sam, of course, is the founder of ILW.COM, the most comprehensive U.S. immigration website on the Internet.  Sam is not an attorney, and my theory is that this explains (in part, at least) why his analysis of things immigration is as incisive as it is.  You mentioned the Sage of Omaha, Sam, so suck it up and handle the well-deserved kudos, my perpetually self-effacing friend…(-;


 


Here are a few of his predictions:


 


-The downturn in H1-B employment in the financial sector, at the largest employers, and at smaller H-1B-dependant employers is likely in the 50%-80% range.


 


-The larger H-1B dependents, who are the largest users of the H-1B program, appear to be down less, perhaps in the neighborhood of 30%.


 


-This year will see greater usage by smaller companies (translation: more RFEs per I-129).


 


Sam investigated informally, spoke to a lot of folks and has concluded that:


 


- the H-1B quota will not be reached in the initial days of April.


- Instead, the Bachelor's quota will likely be reached in mid-April


- The Master's quota not before late- April.


- Business immigration is down overall in the 30% range


- Family immigration in the 10% range.


- Those who deal with deportation matters, however, have seen a 30% increase  in biz.


-The immigration field as a whole is shrinking in the 15% range currently, the sharpest contraction ever.


 


I encourage you to read Sam’s full article at:


 


http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/digest/2009,0323.shtm#comment  



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